Understanding Build‑to‑Rent in the Sunbelt: Explore why Arizona’s housing dynamics make it ideal for institutional BTR investment
The build‑to‑rent (BTR) model—purpose-built for renters—is quickly becoming one of the most critical asset classes in U.S. institutional real estate. Arizona, led by Phoenix, has emerged as a powerhouse for BTR investment in the Sun Belt, grounded in fundamental housing pressures and capital flows.
1. Sun Belt: The National Epicenter of BTR Growth
The South and Sun Belt dominate BTR development:
In early 2025, over 64,000 BTR units were under construction nationally, with nearly 57% located in the Sun Belt—led by Phoenix, Dallas, and Houston en.wikipedia.org credaily.com housingwire.com berkadia.com credaily.com yieldpro.com .
The sector exploded in 2024, with 39,000 new build-to-rent homes completed, marking a 15.5% annual increase orionprop.com credaily.com .
2. Why Arizona Leads the Charge
Several structural forces make Arizona, especially the Phoenix metro, the Sun Belt’s BTR front-runner:
Prospective homebuyers face affordability constraints, while elevated interest rates push demand toward single-family rentals en.wikipedia.org credaily.com point2homes.com us.jll.com wsj.com gao.gov.
Phoenix alone has approximately 13,000 SFR units in development, signaling sustained investor appetite jll.com credaily.com point2homes.com
Institutional platforms—like NexMetro—are underwriting multi-state recapitalizations that include ~$145 M equity committed across Arizona and Colorado us.jll.com jll.com
3. Arizona’s Ideal Conditions for BTR Investment
Strong population inflows and job creation, particularly in manufacturing, tech, and healthcare.
High homeownership barriers, trapping potential buyers in the rental cycle point2homes.com wsj.com credaily.com
Favorable regulatory environment for single-family Zoning and suburban density once unavailable.
A transition in consumer preference toward detached, quality rental homes with modern amenities .
4. Institutional BTR Structures in Arizona
Successful BTR investors use multi-layered capital stacks and JV structures:
Senior construction-to-permanent debt, often nonrecourse, blended with equity layers.
Preferred equity or mezzanine used to support yield targets.
Common LP equity and sponsor co-investment, typically with a 70/30 split post preferred return.
Co-GP setups, where local operators team with institutional JV partners to scale execution.
For example, NexMetro recently closed a recapitalization spanning multiple Arizona assets—with equity from firms like Artemis and debt via Blackstone’s insurance fund arbor.com jll.com yieldpro.com us.jll.com.
5. Risk Management and Value Drivers
Institutional BTR investment in Arizona hinges on disciplined underwriting:
Rent assumptions calibrated to reflect both historical performance and forward growth projections.
Construction cost monitoring, given regional volatility and labor constraints.
Resilience testing, considering downturn scenarios or rising vacancy rates housingwire.com, point2homes.com, rockviewcap.com .
Land sourcing grounded in zoning-friendly suburbs and proximity to jobs and schools.
Final Insight
Arizona’s role as a Build-to-Rent epicenter is rooted in demand dynamics, affordability trends, and supportive capital structures. For institutional investors, it offers both scale and resilience—if layered correctly with smart underwriting and execution discipline.
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Disclaimer
This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to sell or buy securities. Sterling Asset Group does not provide investment or financial advisory services to the general public. Real estate investments involve risk, and prospective clients or partners should consult their legal, financial, or tax advisors before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.